Shipping giant Maersk, considered a bellwether of global trade, sees no signs of a U.S. recession as demand for shipping remains strong, the company’s chief executive said Wednesday.

“We have seen in recent years, in fact, [the shipping container] “The market remains surprisingly resilient to all the fear of recessions that there has been,” Vincent Clerc said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday, adding that container demand was generally a good indicator of underlying macroeconomic strength.

U.S. inventories (goods stored before delivery or processing) “are higher than at the beginning of the year, but they are not at a level that is worrying or that seems to indicate a significant slowdown going forward,” Clerc said, although he noted some unpredictability in the numbers from companies restocking.

“We also looked at purchase orders from many retailers and consumer brands that need to import into the US for the next month of demand, and they appear to still be quite robust… at least the data and indicators we have seem to point to a good level of confidence that current levels of consumption in the US will continue.”

Concerns about a recession in the world’s largest economy, the United States, suddenly escalated last week following a series of weaker-than-expected jobs data that divided economists and market participants.

U.S. retail trade inventories — a measure of unwanted accumulation — rose 5.33% from a year earlier to $793.86 billion in May, according to the latest release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

A report released Wednesday by leasing platform Container xChange said indicators suggest inventories are higher than demand, meaning a “less prosperous time” in the coming months for container traders, the logistics market and retailers who have stockpiled.

Maersk’s Clerc said the company had been surprised by the resilience of container volumes in recent years and said he expected that to continue in the coming quarters, with no signs that the global economy was heading into recessionary territory.

Chinese exports have been the driving force behind strong container volumes, as the global share of containers originating in or destined for China has increased, he continued.

For 2022, the Danish firm had a markedly gloomier outlook, warning of a drag on demand due to inflation, the threat of a global recession, the European energy crisis and the war in Ukraine.

A combination of these factors pushed freight rates down in 2023, leading to a drop in Maersk’s earnings.

That trend was partially reversed this year amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, which prompted shipping companies to reroute trade routes around Africa’s southern coast, extending journey times and taking capacity away from the global system.

Clerc told CNBC on Wednesday that he expected Red Sea drifts to continue at least through the end of the year.

“That, of course, requires more capacity, more ships to move global trade around the world, and that has created some shortages here in the second quarter and third quarter that we’re dealing with right now,” he said.

“That means, in the short term, higher costs, and we have had to incur significant costs as a result of this, both in terms of needing more ships and also needing more containers to do the work that is expected of us.”

If the situation persists, Maersk will see “significant inflation” in its cost base that it will have to pass on to customers, he continued, with routes from Asia to Europe or the US East Coast costing 20% ​​to 30% more.

The impact of short-term capacity constraints has been positive for the Danish shipping giant’s margins and has led to three profit improvements in recent months, Clerc added.

Maersk on Wednesday reported a decline in underlying profit year-on-year to $623 million from $1.346 billion in the second quarter, and a drop in revenue to $12.77 billion from $12.99 billion.

While weaker on an annual basis, the company said ocean freight margins were “significantly better” than in the first quarter of 2024 and the fourth quarter of 2023, with earnings before interest and taxes margin of 5.6% versus -2% and -12.8% in those prior periods.

Maersk shares were down 1.6% at 12:45 p.m. in London on Wednesday.