Hurricane Milton could cause up to $175 billion in damage, according to early estimates
Heavy traffic begins to back up on Interstate 275 South as residents evacuate St. Petersburg, Florida, ahead of Hurricane Milton, USA, October 7, 2024.
Octavio Jones | Reuters
The potential for once-in-a-century Hurricane Milton could cause more than $50 billion in damage, with the potential to leave behind devastation approaching $175 billion or more in the worst case scenario. cases, according to prominent Wall Street analysts.
This would add to the carnage already left behind by Hurricane Helene, posing a possible path of unprecedented destruction.
“Although it is too early to make estimates of insured losses, the impact of a major hurricane on one of Florida’s most populated regions could result in losses in the double-digit billions of dollars,” the equity analyst said in a note. by Jefferies, Yaron Kinar, and others. “Some estimate that a 1-in-100-year event results in $175 [billion] in landfall losses in the Tampa region, and $70 [billion] in losses in the [Fort] Myers region.”
The extent of the potential is difficult to pinpoint and will depend on timing and location, with landfall being less expensive closer to Fort Myers.
To make a historical comparison, analysts need only look back two years, when Hurricane Ian hit near the Fort Myers area as a Category 4 storm and left more than $50 billion in losses. Ian was considered a once in 20 years event.
“If Milton’s path through the more developed Tampa region holds, the potential losses could be greater,” Kinar said.
Milton is also currently in Category 4, although it could weaken when full strength is felt.
Wells Fargo noted that “the market appears to be pricing in a loss of over $50 billion (more than Ian) right now.” The firm established a wide range of potential damages, from $10 billion to $100 billion.
The region has already been shaken: Helene passed through the region 12 days ago, leaving behind devastation that Moody’s estimated Tuesday at about $11 billion. In addition to property damage, Moody’s estimates that the National Flood Insurance Program will likely suffer losses close to $2 billion.
The company’s analysts have not yet estimated the possible damage caused by Milton.
Kiki Keen and her father Clinton Keen walk through the rubble of their family’s beach house following Hurricane Helene in Horseshoe Beach, Florida, USA, on September 28, 2024.
Marco Bello | Reuters
“Hurricane Helene is by far the highest impact event of the current 2024 hurricane season so far, although this may change quickly with the impact of Major Hurricane Milton in Florida in the coming days,” said Mohsen Rahnama, director of risk modeling at Moody’s.
Moody’s also noted that many of the hardest-hit regions where Helene hit do not have flood insurance, “meaning that most damage will be uninsured, and economic property losses will far exceed insured losses,” Firas Saleh said. , director of Flood Modeling in the Interior United States.
Milton weakened a bit Tuesday but still had 145 mph winds. It is expected to reach Tampa on Wednesday morning and bring storm surges of 10 to 15 feet to Tampa Bay.
While the danger and damage to the region is expected to be enormous, the storm does not pose the same danger to neighboring states that hit Helene.